Why would broadband speed drop every renewal? *Please move, posted in wrong forum, sorry!*

[mcman]

A very general question, but I'm shopping around for a new Boradband and TV deal and one thing with BT puzzles me... the speed is 20% lower than last time, and half what it was in 2016. The last renewal was a lower speed than the time before.

The people on the phone always say they can't give me a reason, but in general, what causes this? To many houses? Feels like a but of a shafting considering the price rises for the "improvements to the broadband newtwork" 😂

Estimated Speed:

2023: 32Mbs (Fibre Halo 3+)
2021: 28Mbs (Fibre 1)
2016: 55Mbs (Infinity 1)

Guaranteed:

2023: 26Mbs (Fibre Halo 3+)
2021: 33Mbs (Fibre 1)
2016: 50Mbs (Infinity 1)

[iniltous]

A reduction in the estimate doesn’t necessarily mean a reduction in performance, it’s just an estimate, a point at which being released from contractual commitments can be applied, if this speed cannot be restored .

Someone renewing with a lower estimate doesn’t affect the actual speed they are receiving, it will remain the same as it was, there is no mechanism or reason why the network provider would intervene for someone renewing at a lower estimate and reduce performance , it’s a little paranoid if some suspects that accepting a lower speed estimate somehow will result in a lower actual speed .

Renewal speed estimates can be based on your actual line speed , so if someone had a unreported line fault that was causing a reduction in line speed , the reduction in actual speed would cause a reduction in the estimate speed, if an underlying fault is repaired, and the actual speed improves as a result, the estimate speed should also improve.

On a more general note , the more users on a cabinet , the more the likelihood of crosstalk that can cause a reduction in speed 

[mcman]

it’s a little paranoid if some suspects that accepting a lower speed estimate somehow will result in a lower actual speed .

Can you expand on why you feel this is paranoia? Thes speeds are literally in black and white in my welcome emails for basic broadband upon each previous renewal, and the speed quoted for this year is the top package available to me.

My area has had some massive housing developments built in recent years, BT says it cant tell me if this is the problem, but I'm guessing overprovision is the problem.

[-Richie-]

@mcmanwrote:

A very general question, but I'm shopping around for a new Boradband and TV deal and one thing with BT puzzles me... the speed is 20% lower than last time, and half what it was in 2016. The last renewal was a lower speed than the time before.

The people on the phone always say they can't give me a reason, but in general, what causes this? To many houses? Feels like a but of a shafting considering the price rises for the "improvements to the broadband newtwork" 😂

---

BT changed a few years back to how they calculated customers estimated speeds, back in 2016 it was done using what BT think you should get and used data from nearby customers.
This later changed again to be more accurate and refind but still using an average of properties on the same connection/vacinty
Now it's done using actual and recently observed speeds which is far more accurate but if you had a fault recently, then the observed speeds drop as well, which gives a lower estimate and lower stayfast guarantee.

Essentially BT are under promising to over deliver, estimate a bit lower means when you get more you're happy.

Then just to add some more confusion, you'll see other ISP's offer faster estimates because they have no observed speeds, so it looks tempting to switch but really nothing changes, they don't have accurate data so give a best guess, also ISPs will now offer an average speed of that package, which is made up of what 50% of their customer base get during peak times, which is why some rural people complain other ISP won't serve them and start shouting about a monoploy, slower speed customers reduce their average which makes their packages slower.

[ozsat]

My download speed has been around the same for several renewals - but the guaranteed stay fast speed kept dropping.

It got to the point they would only guarantee 24Mbps  -  even though 29Mpbs is needed for a single BT Ultimate stream on the BTtv box. So effectively they would not provide a guarantee on a service I was paying for.

Eventually got it put back to a realistic 44Mpbs.

[NigelB72]

If the property in question isn't currently supplied by BT, the system will provide a low estimate. This happened to us, BT estimated 32mbps as the previous tenants were with Sky. Once our BT services were connected, we synced at 103mbps... This is on fttc with g-fast 

[mcman]

If the property in question isn't currently supplied by BT, the system will provide a low estimate. This happened to us, BT estimated 32mbps as the previous tenants were with Sky. Once our BT services were connected, we synced at 103mbps... This is on fttc with g-fast 

Interesting, but all three guaranteed speeds I gave were for BT renewals, and the highest speed I have had on paper from BT was the first contract after moving from Sky, in which both the estimated and guaranteed speeds were twice as fast as the respective maximum they will guarantee now.

Around 30Mbs seems to be a common number based on these replies, is this normal now?

[NigelB72]

I think it's because even though Sky are on the Openreach network, they unbundle at the exchange which means the Speed Estimate is literally based on the average in the area on a standard connection.

Once we got connected with BT at whatever was the fastest quoted speed, I re-contracted at the higher speed and higher Stay Fast Guarantee via g-fast 

[iniltous]

If ( for arguments sake ) I had a sync rate of 75Mb , at renewal the ‘estimate’  had reduced to 60Mb , if I were still syncing at 75Mb it’s completely irrelevant, the paranoia quip , is if anyone in this situation thinks that either their ISP or Openreach then take a conscious decision to reduce speed simply because the consumer renewed with a lower speed estimate, they don’t, even if that were possible ( and it isn’t ) why on earth would they want to ?

The speed available is the best a line can provide upto the limit imposed by the speed profile purchased, lines can deteriorate or be influenced by ‘noise’ , most notably crosstalk, and that can affect the achievable speed , it’s unfortunate that cabinets that are ‘busy’ are more likely to have some customers who have a reduced speed ( compared to what they may have previously enjoyed ) due to the proximity of a ‘new’ FTTC customer, on an adjacent pair in the copper network, however it’s also true that a ‘proper’ faulty line that has a seen lower speed estimate as a consequence of that physical fault ( battery , earth, high resistance, partial short etc ) , if repaired, will see an improvement in sync speed and the estimate will follow that upwards…

[mcman]

Thank for all your answers.

The simplest explanation is probably the demand caused by the volume of housing built in the area over the last decade and I guess a lack of investment to match.

There is not even a difference between Fibre 1 and 2 speeds on my renewal page, and of course, no still no full fibre. The speeds are less than they use as an average on the Essentials marketing.

The best they can offer is 32 Mps. It's not good enough in 2023. Still, no other provider will be better and I guess that's why nothing will change.